GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new forecast more than doubles the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The upgrade was supported by stronger trade activity in the first half of the year, shifts in supply chain dynamics, and a surge in investment in artificial intelligence hardware. During the initial six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO additionally anticipates a 4.1 percent rise in merchandise trade for 2027.
A significant contributor to the improved trade figures was the demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence made up 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth during the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other equipment used to develop computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-related products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. According to WTO estimates, global expenditure on AI infrastructure is projected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026.
Energy markets and shipping sectors experienced notable upheaval during this period. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent. The global decrease in crude oil shipments was mitigated by higher exports from other producing regions, bringing the overall decline to about 6 percent. Worldwide LNG exports fell roughly 1 percent. However, global container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, driven by trade shifts across alternative suppliers, ports, and transportation routes.
Robust technology demand underpins increased goods trade
The forecast for services trade was more subdued compared to merchandise. The WTO lowered its 2026 growth projection for commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Results for transport and international travel were softer amid disruptions in the Middle East. International tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, yet for the first half, arrivals remained 0.4 percent higher than the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel expenditure also slowed during the second quarter.
Certain service sectors continued to expand at a faster pace. Exports of computer services increased 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and an estimated 12 percent in the second. Financial services exports grew by 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The WTO forecasts a 6.4 percent growth rate for commercial services trade in 2027. It also predicts global GDP to grow 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent increase in 2027.
Asia expected to lead regional export growth in 2026
Regional projections reveal considerable variation in merchandise export performance. Asia is expected to achieve 9.9 percent export growth in 2026. North America follows at 5.7 percent, while Africa is forecasted to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is projected to see a 3.4 percent increase. Europe is anticipated to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent, whereas the Middle East faces the weakest outlook with a predicted 17.2 percent fall in merchandise exports during the year.
Forecasts for merchandise imports also show significant regional differences. Asia is expected to see a 9.5 percent rise, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to increase by 1.4 percent, compared to a 0.5 percent growth forecast for Europe. Merchandise imports in the Middle East are expected to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest trade figures demonstrate resilience while also reflecting uneven effects from economic and geopolitical disruptions.