ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global cereal production is forecasted to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This figure indicates a 2% decrease from the record harvest of 2025 and is also 3.4 million tonnes lower than the earlier estimate. Nonetheless, despite this decline, world cereal output would rank as the second highest on record, reflecting a total reduction of around 61.1 million tonnes compared to the previous year.
Much of the global outlook weakness stems from maize production, expected to be 1.309 billion tonnes. Drier and hotter conditions across parts of the European Union have led to lower yield expectations, with France and Poland among the countries with significant downward revisions. India and Paraguay also experienced smaller declines, while improved yields in Argentina and Brazil helped mitigate some of the drop. Both South American producers remain on track for maize harvests well above their recent averages.
Wheat prospects have seen improvement from earlier evaluations, although global production still falls short of last year’s levels. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from its previous forecast. Enhanced yield expectations lifted projections for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine have risen, while dry conditions in the European Union and United Kingdom have led to reduced estimates. Overall, global wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025.
Weakness in Maize Production Damps Overall Grain Output
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is anticipated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Better crop results in Myanmar and Sri Lanka have supported this outlook, yet they did not fully offset weaker forecasts for China, the Philippines, and the United States. U.S. rice acreage has also shrunk to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to worldwide rice supplies.
Overall cereal consumption worldwide is projected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a modest 0.2% increase from the prior season. Demand for coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, whereas wheat usage is forecasted to decrease from last season’s high levels. The total global rice consumption is expected at 559 million tonnes, driven by growing food needs along with population growth. Additionally, feed demand supports coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
High Cereal Inventories Persist Despite Slightly Lower Predictions
At the conclusion of 2027 seasons, global cereal stocks are forecasted at 947.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from the previous estimate but still 1.8 million tonnes above the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% of the prior season. Wheat reserves are projected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower maize and barley inventories account for much of the reduction in overall stock levels.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from earlier projections. Although this increase is notable, it remains below the record volume achieved in 2025/26. The rise is largely driven by increased maize trade, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. Meanwhile, global rice trade for 2026 is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% below the peak level recorded in 2025.