MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has sanctioned a comprehensive long-term coal industry strategy that aims for annual production of 662 million tonnes by 2050, aligned with its projected scenario. This plan extends the country’s coal policies well into the middle of this century. In 2024, Russia produced approximately 443 million tonnes of coal, making this new benchmark a notable increase from that figure. The government approved the plan through Order No. 2606-r, issued on September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single fixed projection, the programme outlines several potential production pathways. Its target scenario projects output reaching 530.1 million tonnes in 2030. By 2036, output is expected to increase to 595.2 million tonnes before reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios forecast lower totals for that year, with the stress scenario estimating 318.9 million tonnes and the conservative scenario at 460.8 million tonnes. The inertial scenario anticipates approximately 586.4 million tonnes.
Long-term export goals form a significant component of the programme’s benchmarks. Under the target scenario, exports are projected at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030 and 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, rising further to 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan also addresses domestic consumption, processing capabilities, extraction techniques, and regional output distribution.
Eastern regions take on a larger share in production
A key element of the government’s strategy is assigning a greater role in national coal production to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions accounted for 48.3% of Russia’s coal output in 2024. Their combined share is projected to grow to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050 across different scenarios within the plan. Russia’s coal reserves are reported to exceed 273 billion tonnes of explored resources. The strategy emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while also developing new resource zones to meet future production targets.
Coal processing and extraction techniques are governed by separate quantitative objectives in the plan. In 2024, processed coal—excluding lignite—accounted for 58.9% of total output. The plan aims to increase that share to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining, which produced 78.4% of Russian coal in 2024, is expected to rise to between 82% and 85% in the long term. The programme also incorporates initiatives related to workforce productivity, mining technology advancements, safety standards, and environmental compliance.
Three-phase approach guides programme implementation through 2050
Russia’s coal strategy will unfold over three distinct phases. The initial phase, extending through 2030, focuses on short-term industry development and operational measures. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will target processing capabilities, coal utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase spans from 2037 to 2050. Oversight of the programme will be conducted by the Energy Ministry, in collaboration with other federal and regional agencies, which are responsible for providing annual progress updates to the Ministry of Economic Development per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the revised programme during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry plan through 2035 that Russia approved in 2020. Novak indicated that the new plan anticipates a sixfold increase in the gross value added by the coal sector by 2050, with the broader multiplier effect approaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target output of 662 million tonnes aligns with the scenario goals, but it remains one of several possible production pathways within the strategy.